How to make a start/sit call
Most start/sit questions are closer than they feel, and the honest answer is often that it barely matters. Where it does matter, the deciding factor is usually floor versus ceiling rather than raw projection. If you are favoured, start the player whose bad week is least bad. If you need points, start the one whose good week is biggest, even if his bad week is worse.
Volume beats matchup more often than people expect. A player who will see the ball fifteen times against a strong defence is generally a safer start than one who might see it six times against a weak one. Defences also change through a season, so a reputation earned in September is often stale by December.
- Should I ever bench a star in a bad matchup?
- Rarely. Genuine every-week starters keep their volume regardless of opponent, and the times they disappoint are mostly unpredictable rather than matchup-driven. Bench them only when the alternative has a clear path to a big game, not merely a nicer opponent on paper.
- How much does home versus away matter?
- Less than most people assume for individual players, and more for game totals. A road game in a hostile environment shows up as a lower expected score for the whole offence rather than as a penalty on one player.
- What if two players are projected identically?
- Take the one with the more secure role. Identical projections built from different levels of certainty are not identical decisions, and the player whose usage is stable will disappoint you less often.
