NFL Weather Forecast

Wind is the only weather that reliably matters

Weather is the most over-read input in fantasy football, with one exception. Sustained wind suppresses passing games, and it does so predictably: deep throws come off the menu, kickers lose range, and offences lean on the run whether or not they wanted to. Around 15 miles per hour is where it starts to show, and above 20 it is a genuine reason to change a lineup.

Rain is the opposite: it feels decisive and mostly is not. Modern footballs and modern receivers cope with wet weather far better than the instinct suggests, and games in steady rain regularly produce ordinary passing numbers. Snow reads even more dramatic on television and often comes with light wind, which is the condition that actually governs the passing game.

How to act on a forecast

• Check wind, then stop: if the wind is under about 12 miles per hour, the forecast has told you nothing worth acting on.
• Kickers first: no position is hurt more by wind. A high-wind game is the single best reason to stream a different kicker.
• Cold alone is not a downgrade: temperature on its own has a much smaller effect than the wind that often accompanies it. Judge the two separately.
• Domes remove the question: indoor games are immune, which is part of why they carry higher expected point totals before anyone considers the teams.