NFL Matchup Analysis

What a matchup can and cannot tell you

A matchup shapes the range of outcomes; it rarely decides them. The strongest signal in any given week is the expected total number of points in the game, because a high-scoring game gives both offences more plays, more possessions and more scoring chances for everyone involved.

The second signal is the expected margin. A team likely to trail throws more and runs less, which lifts its receivers and hurts its running backs even when the offence as a whole plays badly. A team likely to lead does the reverse, which is why a good running back on a heavy favourite is such a dependable start.

Matchup factors worth acting on

• Game total: the single most useful number for weekly decisions. Everything in a high-total game is easier to start.
• Expected script: who throws and who runs is determined more by the scoreboard than by preference.
• Pace: offences that snap the ball quickly create more opportunities for everyone in the game, both teams included.
• Specific weaknesses: a defence that struggles against the position your player plays, not merely a defence that gives up points overall.